中国气象局气候变化专项项目CCSF201503[Special foundation of climate change of China Meteorological BureauCCSF201503];国家自然科学基金项目41571044和41001283 [National Natural Science Foundation of China 41571044 and 41001283];中国气象局预报员专项CMAYBY2014-022 [Foundation of China Meteorological Bureau forecastersCMAYBY2014-022];上海市科研计划项目14DZ1202904 [Scientific research foundation of Shanghai14DZ1202904]